几何级数法在估计我国2012年15岁以上人群高血压患病率中的应用

Application of Geometric Progression Method for Estimating the 2012 Hypertension Prevalence in Population Elder Than 15 Years of Age in China

目的:估计2012年我国15岁以上人群的高血压患病率及患病人数。方法:利用我国1958年来四次大规模高血压抽样调查的数据,假设近年高血压患病率的年均增长率保持恒定采用几何级数法,通过级数递增的方式对2012年患病率进行估计。结果:近十年间,我国高血压患病率的年均增长率保持在3.1%左右,患病率平稳增长。估计2012年全国15岁以上人群的高血压患病率约为24%,患病人数达到2.7亿左右。结论:几何级数法给出的我国高血压患病率估测结果与之前的发展趋势紧密相关,估计的趋势相对合理,具参考价值。

Objective： To predict the 2012 hypertension prevalence in the population elder than 15 years of age in China. Methods： Based on 4 times of national large-scale sampling surveys since 1958 and with the hypothesis of constant annual growth rate for suffering from the disease, we estimated the hypertension prevalence rate of 2012 in China by geometric progression method. Results： In recent 10 years, the annual growth rate of hypertension kept at 3.1% steadily. The estimated prevalence rate in the population elder than 15 years was 24% and with the approximated 270 million of patients in 2012. Conclusion： The geometric progression method provided a reasonable prediction for hypertension prevalence, it was closely related to previous growing trend and therefore, valuable in preventive medicine.