国际关系定量分析:科学还是反科学?

Quantitative Analysis in International Relations:Scientific or Anti-Scientific?

本文分析和批判了国际关系学中的弗里德曼范式(形式理性建模+回归分析),指出该范式形式上的科学性不能保证研究过程和结果的科学性。形式理性主义模型主要的缺陷是非真实的假定会导致与现实毫不相关的理论猜想。回归分析主要的缺点是经验检验结果的随意性。两者互为因果,把国际关系定量研究从科学变为反科学。我们应该吸取美国国际关系学科学化的教训,厘清数理工具在人的世界中的应用限度,从行为和现象出发来选择研究方法。

This essay casts doubts upon Friedman's Paradigm of formal(rational) modeling and regression analysis in International Relations.It highlights the fact that the seemingly scientific form of this paradigm is unable to guarantee the scientificness of its process and outcome.The major weakness of the formal(rational) modeling lies in its unrealistic assumptions,which may well lead to theoretical implications having nothing to do with the reality.On the other hand,the Achilles' heel of regression analysis is the arbitrariness of its outcomes.Mutually reinforcing,the two methods have turned quantitative analysis into an anti-scientific instrument in International Relations.In view of this,we should draw a lesson from our American counterparts who intend to employ a scientific approach in International Relations,clarify the limit of the use of mathematical tools in the human world and choose our research methods based on human behaviors and real social phenomena.