金融脱媒与货币政策传导:基于中国的实证分析

Financial Disintermediation and the Transmission of Monetary Policy in China

近年来,随着直接融资与间接融资比例的快速提升,中国的金融脱媒现象日益明显。从国际实践看,金融脱媒对货币政策传导机制的影响十分复杂,从已有的研究成果中尚难以得到普适性的结论。本文结合中国的有关数据,在对金融脱媒程度进行测度的基础上,分别考察了封闭经济和开放经济条件下新凯恩斯IS曲线的变化。我们发现,金融脱媒因素的引入显著增强了IS曲线中利率对产出缺口的弹性。实证结果表明,金融脱媒有助于利率充分发挥资源配置的作用,促使货币政策的利率传导机制更加有效,并促进调控方式从数量型向价格型转变。经济师,中国人民银行货币政策二司。

With the development of direct finance, financial disintermediation has been becoming an important phenomenon in China. Judging from international experiences and the literatures, it is difficult to get a definite con- clusion due to the complicated effects of financial disintermediation on the transmission of monetary policy. This pa- per calculates the degree of financial disintermediation in China and analyzes the changes it caused on a New Keynesian IS Curve on condition of both closed and open economies. We find that the elasticity of the output gap to the interest rate increases significantly when we include financial disintermediation, which suggests that financial disintermediation can help interest rates to fully play the role of the allocation of resources, promotes the transmis-sion of monetary policy in China and brings the monetary policy to transfer from quantity-based approach to price-based approach.