摘要
研究目的:目前四阶段法在客运专线的客流预测中应用较为广泛和成熟,在普通铁路项目中还较少运用。随着铁路服务水平的提高,普通铁路的市场竞争力加强,普通铁路的客流预测复杂性也相应增加。本文以四阶段法为基础,结合传统客流预测特点,在分析线路当前客货运量构成的基础上,对长春至白城铁路扩能的客流进行预测。研究结论:长白铁路扩能项目客流预测工作的顺利完成表明:(1)四阶段法不仅适用于客运专线的客流预测,也适用于普通铁路项目的客流预测工作;(2)四阶段法对于普通铁路的客流预测较之传统预测方法更加可靠、高效;(3)本次客流预测结果与设计年度更为贴合,表明该预测方法可为类似项目的客流量预测提供参考。
Research purposes: Four stages method applies in forecasting passenger flow of passenger dedicated line extensively and succeed. But few common railway projects use this way in passenger flow forecasting. In pace with advancing of serve, the common railway has stronger competitive power, and leads to be more difficult in passenger flow forecasting. The passenger flow forecasting in railway of Changchun - Baicheng, based on four stages method, combined the traditional method on passenger flow forecasting, ensured the result of passenger flow forecasting being close to the actual result of the project. Research conclusions: Four stages method applies in forecasting passenger flow of the project of Changchun - Baicheng Railway indicates : ( 1 ) Four stages method applies in forecasting passenger flow of common railway as well as applies in Passenger- Dedicated Line ;( 2 ) Compared with the traditional methods, four stages method applies in forecasting passenger flow of common railway is advanced and more credibility; (3)The result of the passenger flow forecasting is more fit for the design annual, this study is significant and also useful for the similar projects to reference.
出处
《铁道工程学报》
EI
北大核心
2013年第12期15-18,共4页
Journal of Railway Engineering Society
关键词
铁路扩能
客流预测
四阶段法
railway promotion
passenger flow forecasting
four stages method