上网电价满足指数O-U过程条件下分类用户销售电价计算模型

Sales Price Calculaion Model for Classefied Users with Feed-in Tariffs Meeting the Exponential O-U Process

采用指数O-U过程随机理论对上网电价的波动特性进行分析,得到满足指数O-U过程条件下基于效用函数的上网电价计算表达式。在此基础上构造购售联动模型,求得供电公司的平均销售电价,然后按照同比变化原则得到分类用户销售电价。依据美国加州电力市场上网电价数据为例进行了验证,结果表明电力市场上网电价在一定条件下近似遵循指数O-U过程,根据购售联动所求得的平均销售电价和分类用户销售电价大致接近实际情况,从而为销售电价制定提供一定的理论参考,同时对其进行有效监管。

The stochastic theory of exponential O-U process is employed to analyze of the fluctuation characteristics of feed-in tariffs, and derive the feed-in tariff calculation expression based on utility function on the condition that the exponential O-U process is met. Then purchase-sale linkage model is built up to calculate the average selling price of power supply companies, as well as the sales price for classefied users in accordance with the principle of change in the same proportion. The case study on the feed-in tariff data of California electricity market has verified that the feed- in tariffs approximately conform to the exponential O-U process under certain conditions. The average sales price ob- tained by the purchase-sale linkage approximates to the sales price for classified users. This research provides certain theoretical reference for determining and regulating the sales price.