页岩气工业前景取决于储层

An industrial prospect of shale gas depends on reservoirs

自2012年3月国家颁布《页岩气发展规划(2011—2015年)》以来,围绕页岩气理论战略、技术经济及安全环保问题的争论持续升温,建议停止页岩气开发者和出谋划策支持页岩气开发者兼而有之,其中,《天然气工业》2013年第4期中张抗先生主张页岩气开发应借鉴煤层气开发的经验,以管理改革为核心,加强政策引导。通过对页岩气、煤层气、致密砂岩气高产井岩石学特征分析研究,得出了与张抗先生不同的结论,即:页岩气工业前景取决于储层本身而非国家政策;煤层和页岩作为天然气储层的不利因素在于其地质条件下的塑性变形属性;页岩气开发并不经济,并严重污染地表与地下水系;页岩气区块所在位置与已发现常规油气田高度重合,是否因压裂导致与常规油气层沟通,有待进一步研究;加之页岩气储量的真实性问题。结论认为:页岩气开发不应是中国政府的最佳选择。

Since The Shale Gas Development Plan of 2011 - 2015 was issued by the government in March 2012, both supporters and opponents have never renounced arguing those shale gas related issues in terms of theoretical strategies, technical economy, safety and environment concerns, etc. Among those supporters, Mr. Zhang Kang suggests that we should learn from experience in CBM gas development and insists on the crucial importance of national policies [-see Natural Gas Industry, 2013, 33（4） ：18-23~. In view of this, we made an in-depth analysis of reservoir properties of coal beds, gas shales and tight sandstones. Contrary to Mr. Zhang, our conclusions were drawn as follows. First, the commercial production of shale gas depends on reservoirs rather than na- tional policies. Second, coal beds and gas shales have an unfavorable attribute of elastic deformation in their geological settings. Third, shale gas development is not cost-effective at all and will inevitably contaminate surface and subsurface water system. Fourth, the locations of shale gas plays superimpose with the discovered conventional oil or gas fields, so it is still a question if shale gas ori- gins from shale or comes from the connected conventional oil or gas formations after fracturing treatment. And finally, how much on earth China boasts of the shale gas reserves is still in doubt. In summary, we consider that shale gas development may not the best choice for Chinese government at present.