我国宏观经济-房地产动态可计算一般均衡模型研究

Study on dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China's real estate and macro-economy

基于动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型对政策进行外生模拟,可以对中长期内政策实施后的宏观经济效应进行预测,从而据此为政策的制定、实施提供科学参考.通过引入存量住宅部门定义,对我国存量住宅的相关数据进行估计,建立了我国宏观经济-房地产动态可计算一般均衡模型,为房地产市场相关政策的效应分析提供了一个具有较强通用性的研究工具.之后,以新建3600万套保障性安居工程计划为例,示范了如何将政策量化为模型的外生冲击.并模拟了该政策实施后的经济影响.相较于传统的动态CGE模型,该模型将存量住宅市场的供给与需求均衡考虑进了模型体系中.基于该模型框架,可以比较全面地考察相关政策措施对宏观经济及房地产市场的影响.

Dynamic computable general equilibrium （CGE） model has been widely used to forecast and simulate the policy effects in medium and long term. By introducing the concept of owner occupied dwelling sector and estimating the baseline data, this paper develops a dynamic CGE model for China＇s real estate and macro-economy, to simulate the effects of policy in real estate market. Using 36 million units of social welfare housing project as an example, this paper shows how to calculate shocks in model based on the real policy and analyze the policy effects. Compared with traditional dynamic CGE model, this model takes the equilibrium in supply and demand in stock market into account, so that it can better simulate the policy effects on macro-economy and real estate market.