江苏省物流需求影响因素分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction of Influencing Factors of Logistics Demand in Jiangsu Province

对物流需求进行合理、科学的预测,为政府部门进行物流规划、统筹物流资源的供给提供依据。在利用主成分分析法选取适当指标的基础上,构建了多元线性回归预测模型,并对江苏省2012—2018年的物流需求量进行了预测研究。通过检验分析,证明了该模型的拟合度较好、预测精度较高、具有较好的显著性水平,预测结果具有可信性。预测研究的结果表明,江苏省物流需求在预测的时间范围内,将呈现较为显著的增长趋势。

The reasonable and scientific prediction for Logistics demand province provides a basis for government departments car- rying logistics planning and coordinating logistics resources. Many factors affect the logistics needs, using principal component analysis to select the appropriate indicators, then constructed multivariate linear regression model to predict the logistics demand of Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2018. According to the examination analysis, the model has been proved that it has a high fitting degree and pre- diction accuracy, and a high level of significance, showing a credible forecast result. The prediction result shows that Jiangsu logistics demand will continue to grow dramatically during the forecast period.