1990-2012年山东济南市气候变化特征分析

Feature Analysis of Climate Change in Jinan, Shandong Province during 1990- 2012

根据济南市1990-2012年气象数据，运用均值、线性倾向估计等统计分析的方法，对济南气温和降水的季、年变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：济南市近25年平均气温为14．96℃，并以0．153℃／5a的速度下降，与全球气温上升趋势不一致，各季节平均气温变化不一，但整体均呈现下降趋势，降温幅度冬季〉夏季〉秋季〉春季；20多年来其平均降水量为850．58mm，以22．86mm／5a的速率递减，秋季和冬季降水量趋于平衡，春季有明显上升趋势，夏季呈现减少趋势，极值之差为187．2mm。

Based on meteorological data of Jinnan during the period of 1990 to 2012, this article analyzes seasonally variation characteristics and annual variation tendency of temperature, precipitation in Jinan by the statistical analysis method. Statistic results show that the average temperature is 14.96 ℃in recent 25 years and falls at a speed of 0. 153 ℃/5a. The mean temperature in each season shows a declining trend. As the temperature decrease span in winter 〉summer 〉autumn 〉 spring, the mean precipitation is 850.58 mm in recent 25 years and decreases at a speed of 22.86mm/5a. The mean precipitation keeps balance in autumn and winter, and increases in spring and decreased in summer. Temperature reduces most distinctly in summer at a speed of 6.47 mm/5a.