中国省级区域碳源汇空间格局研究

Spatial patterns of provincial carbon source and sink in China

中国已经成为全球碳排放总量最大的国家,且由于正处在快速工业化和城市化的关键时期,与之伴随的继续增加的碳排放越来越受到国际关注,对碳减排的压力亦日益增加。碳减排需要从减少碳源和增加碳汇两个方面同时推进。本文利用中国森林资源清查数据和相关统计数据,结合排放系数法、森林碳汇蓄积量法和草地固碳速率法,比较全面的估算了省级尺度区域的能源消耗碳排放、森林碳汇、草地碳汇和耕地碳汇,分析了中国碳排放总量、人均碳排放、地均碳排放、能源强度的区域差异,以及碳汇和碳盈余的空间格局特征:①从省级区域单元看,碳排放总量列前三名的是山东、山西和河北,较低的省区为宁夏、青海和海南;人均碳排放较高的为内蒙古、山西和宁夏,较低的省区为江西、海南和广西;地均碳排放最高的为上海,最低的省区为青海;碳排放强度最低的省区包括北京、广东、上海、浙江等。②从全国来看,森林碳汇占总碳汇的52.85%,云南和黑龙江森林碳汇优势显著;草地碳汇占总碳汇的38.51%,主要集中在内蒙古、青海和新疆等省区;耕地碳汇占总碳汇的8.63%,主要集中在黑龙江、吉林、河南和辽宁等省区。今后,东部地区应当转变发展方式,通过科技创新,提高能源利用效率;中部地区要抓住绿色发展机遇,推动低碳产业跨越发展;东北地区的黑龙江碳汇能力较强,可积极参与国际碳交易;西部地区应加强管理,加速技术改进,提高能源利用效率,并加强生态环境建设,增强碳汇能力。

China has become the biggest country of carbon emissions, and the size and scale of industrialization and urbanization are unprecedented. The pressure of carbon reduction is increasing day by day with the increas- ing carbon emissions which have caused more and more international concerns. Carbon reduction should be made possible by both reducing carbon source and increasing carbon sink at the same time. Policies of low car- bon development should be different to the regions with obviously different existing carbon source and carbon sink. In this paper, by collecting the data from the forest inventory and some related statistical yearbooks, and by applying the methods of discharge coefficient, stand volume, and carbon sequestration rate in forest and grass- land ecosystems at region scale, we made an overall estimation of carbon emissions from energy consumption, and carbon sinks from forest, grassland and arable land at the provincial scale. Then, the regional differences of total carbon emissions, carbon emissions per capita, carbon emissions per unit area, and energy intensity in Chi- na are analyzed, and spatial pattern of carbon sink and carbon surplus are discussed. As to the overall carbon emissions at the provincial scale, the carbon emission in Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei is relatively high; the car- bon emission in Ningxia, Qinghai and Hainan is relatively low. As to the per capita carbon emission, Inner Mon- golia, Shanxi and Ningxia have the largest per capita carbon emission; Jiangxi, Hainan and Guangxi have the lowest. As to the carbon emission per square kilometer, Shanghai has the largest; Qinghai has the lowest. Be- sides, the provinces with relatively low carbon intensity are Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, etc. Nationwide, the percentage of forest carbon sink is 53%, and the percentage in Yunnan and Heilongjiang is rela- tively high. The percentage of grassland carbon sink is 38.51%, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Xinjiang province. The carbon sinks from arable land focus on the carbon in the process of Maize straw re- turning to the field, which account for 8.63% of the total carbon sink. The results show that the carbon sinks from arable land in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan and Liaoning are higher than the ones in other provinces. Combin- ing the feature of carbon source and carbon sinks of the four economic zones, the key issues in low-carbon devel- opment are pointed out. In the future, eastern region should change the development mode and improve energy efficiency through technological innovations. Central region should seize the green development opportunity to promote the low-carbon industry to achieve leapfrog development. Northeast region has high carbon sinks and ＇~~：actively participate in international carbon trading. By strengthening management, western region should ac- celerate,the technological improvements to improve energy efficiency and the ecological environment, and to en- ha.nee the capacity of carbon sinks.