摘要
财政基本建设投资是我国政府推进城镇化建设的重要手段,而人口城市化作为我国政府未来的施政重点,对经济发展和社会进步具有很强的带动作用。选用我国1979-2011年人口城市化和财政基本建设投资的时间序列数据,在控制产业结构的情况下,建立VAR模型,并运用协整理论、向量误差修正模型(VEC)、脉冲响应函数和方差分解,检验了三者之间的动态关系。结果显示,三者存在着长期的均衡关系,但是财政基本建设投资对人口城市化的长期积累效应较弱,并且在短期内的调整效应并不明显。
Financial capital construction investment is an important means of urbanization construction for Chinese gov- ernment. The population urbanization will be a priority for the government administration, and plays a great role in promoting the economic development and social progress. This essay analy- zes the data of the population urbanization and financial capital construction investment from 1979 to 2011, and builds the VAR model by controlling the industrial structure. Then the essay studies the dynamic relations by applying the cointegration test, VEC model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposi- tion. The results show that： they have a long - term stability of equilibrium relations; however, the long - term accumulative effect of the financial capital construction investment is faint on population urbanization, and the short - term adjustment effect is non - significant.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第12期62-67,共6页
Urban Problems
关键词
人口城市化
财政基本建设投资
VAR模型
population urbanization
financial capital construction investment
VAR model
