农民工市民化用时差异的影响因素

Influencing factors of citizenization's durations of rural migrant workers

不同于以往对农民工市民化的意愿或状态的研究,将关注点集中于市民化过程经历时间的差异,采用中国综合社会调查(CGSS2006)的回顾性调查数据,运用生存分析的方法定量分析了我国农民工获得城镇户口所需时间的影响因素。回归结果表明,农民工的年龄、教育水平、首次就业的单位性质、是否为本地就业等因素对其市民化用时的影响显著,反映出现阶段我国农民工市民化的路径不同,获得非农户口的过程中存在着一定程度的不均等现象,以土地换取城镇身份的做法降低了本地农民工的市民化意愿。为了缩短市民化的用时,未来政策应考虑农民工的需求差异,增加农民工职业培训,提高农民工就业质量,完善农地流转市场机制。

Compared to the previous papers which re- search on the willingness and fettle of citizenization, this essay focuses on the durations of citizenization. Using the retrospective survey data of China General Social Survey （CGSS2006） , and Cox proportional hazard function model of the survival data anal- ysis, this essay analyzes the length of time for rural migrant workers to get non - agriculture registrations quantitatively. Regression results show that four influencing factors brings a signifi- cant effect, including age and education of rural migrant work- ers, types of their first working units, and whether they are n- atives. These results provide certain foundation to advance the citizenization process of the rural migrant workers and urban de- velopment.