一种考虑可靠性效益的风电开发经济性分析方法

An Analysis Considering the Reliability Benefits of Wind Power Development Economy

从现有能源结构入手,分析风电并网的经济性。除了考虑风电的替代性效益,即从风电场接入系统后节省的常规火电厂燃料及用水费用、系统排放物减少带来的货币价值分析风电开发的经济性外,还从电力系统可靠性的视角,分析了风电并网后系统电量不足期望值减少带来的可靠性效益,从而整体衡量风电开发的经济性。给出了适合电网运行、计算简便的风电开发经济性计算的步骤,通过对系统进行随机生产模拟,可以分别计算不考虑或考虑风电场时系统的耗煤量、火电厂发电量、电量不足期望值等数据,计算各项经济效益并求和得到总的经济效益。

Starting from the existing energy structure to analyze wind power economy. In addition to consider- ing wind power alternative benefit, that is, we evaluate the economy of wind power development by the cost of fuel and water costs saving in conventional thermal power plants and the monetary value of the system reduced emissions and the economic benefits of the reducing of the expected energy not served in the system, but also we analyze the economic benefits of the reducing of the expected energy not served in system particularly. Then we get the whole measure of the economics of wind power development. Finally, we summarize the ca- culation steps which is easy to operate and calculate. This method calculate the coal consumption, thermal pow- er plant generating capacity and the expected energy not served in the system with or without regard to wind farms by probabilistic production simulation. Then calculate the economic benefits and to obtain the total eco- nomic benefits of wind power development economy.