基于多因素影响的高等教育发展规模实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Development Scale of Higher Education Affected by Multifactor

经济发展水平、人口、教育投入、教师数量等指标是影响高等教育规模发展的核心要素。通过对1992年以来的相关历史数据分析,以及对2013年-2020年高等教育发展规模进行预测表明:高等教育的发展速度与经济增长的幅度同步并日益趋缓,高等教育发展方式宜由规模扩张的外延式发展向以质量提升的内涵式发展转变。

The key elements influencing the development scale of higher education are the level of development in economy, population, input in education and the number of college schoolteachers. This paper analyzes related historical data since 1992 and predicts the development scale of higher education from 2013 to 2020. It indicates that the development speed of higher education and the growth in economy must be slowed down and the development mode of higher education must be transformed from scale extended development to internal development so as to ensure the quality of higher education.