大战终结:撒哈拉以南非洲政治暴力变化的模式

Wars Do End! Changing Patterns of Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

与通常的假定相反,撒哈拉以南非洲大规模、有组织的政治暴力在发生频率与烈度方面都在下降,而且非洲也并非唯一易爆发战争的地区。21世纪头十年后期的非洲内战频次是20世纪90年代中期的一半,而且战争的特点也发生了变化。当代非洲的内战往往是小规模的、发生在边远地区,有时跨越多国、涉及派系化的叛乱者,叛军往往不能占有重要领土或首都,大规模杀戮民众的事件也在下降。非洲其他形式的政治暴力正在增加或继续存在,包括选举暴力和由土地或水等生存资源争夺引发的暴力。冷战后的地缘政治转型是非洲内战频率与特点发生变化的主要原因。

Contrary to common assumption, major forms of large - scale organ- ized political violence in sub - Saharan Africa are declining in frequency and intensi- ty, and the region is not uniquely prone to the onset of warfare. African civil wars in the late 2000s were about haft as common compared to the mid - 1990s. The charac- ter of warfare has also changed. Contemporary wars are typically small - scale, fought on state peripheries and sometimes across multiple states, and involve factionalized insurgents who typically cannot hold significant territory or capture state cap- itals. Episodes of large - scale mass killing of civilians are also on the decline. That said, other forms of political violence that receive less attention in the academic liter- ature are increasing or persistent. These include electoral violence and violence over access to livelihood resources, such as land and water. While primarily descriptive, the article posits that geo - political shifts since the end of the Cold War are a leading candidate to explain the changing frequency and character of warfare in sub - Saha- ran Africa.