中国通货膨胀成因的非线性分解及随机冲击效应

The Nonlinear Decompose of Inflation Factors and the Effect of Stochastic Disturbances

针对中国通货膨胀在高通胀与低通胀时期的非线性动态特征,使用非线性数据分解技术,将中国不同时期通货膨胀的影响因素分解为供给冲击、需求冲击和货币冲击,进而使用非线性广义脉冲响应函数研究随机冲击对通胀的动态冲击效应。结果表明:中国通货膨胀的动态特征在通胀率为2.89%处发生非线性转换,随机冲击对通胀的动态效应也随之改变;需求冲击与货币冲击对通胀形成正向效应,供给冲击对通胀形成负向效应;2012年下半年以来中国低通胀主要是源于负向需求冲击的结果;未来一定时期内,中国通胀将维持较低水平。因此,中央银行为保增长可适度放松货币政策。

Based on the backglbund that China＇ s inflation has nonlinear dynamic char- acteriatics in the period of high inflation and low inflation, this paper decomposes the infla- tion factors into the supply disturbance, demand disturbance and money disturbance using nonlinear data decompose technique, and uses nonlinear generalized impulse response func- tion to study the dynamic effect of stochastic disturbances to inflation. The results show that dynamic characteristics of inflation happen to transform when inflation is at 2.89% inflation rate, the dynamic effect of stochastic disturbances to inflation is also changing. Demand dis- turbance and money disturbance have positive effect to inflation and supply disturbance has negative effects to inflation. Since the second half of 2012,the low inflation was mainly due to negative demand shock. China＇ s inflation will remain low in the certain future period. Therefore, the central bank should be appropriate to relax monetary policy to maintain eco- nomic growth.