金融集聚与产业结构变迁——来自长三角16个城市的经验研究

Financial Agglomeration and Industrial Structure——Empirical Research from 16 Cities of Yangtze River Delta

基于长三角16市2003—2011年的面板数据，运用面板向量自回归模型研究金融集聚与产业结构变迁的互动关系，结果发现金融集聚、产业结构合理化和高级化三者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系；金融集聚推动产业结构变迁主要是通过产业结构高级化而非合理化，且时滞效应明显；反之，产业结构合理化和高级化对金融集聚具有持续的正向效应，但金融集聚受产业结构合理化冲击后向稳态收敛的速度明显慢于产业结构高级化；最后，稳健性检验保证结论的可靠性，但同时发现长三角地区金融集聚影响产业结构变迁主要是通过资本市场来实现。

Based on the panel data of Yangtze River Delta 16 cities from 2003 to 2011, using the panel vector autoregressive model to study the interaction relationship between fi- nancial agglomeration and industrial structure. The results found that, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship among financial agglomeration, rationalization of industrial structure and optimization of industrial structure. The financial agglomeration promotes in- dustrial structure is optimization of industrial structure rather than rationalization of industri- al structure, and the time lag effect is obvious. Instead, the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure have lasting positive effect on financial agglomeration, but the convergent speed of financial agglomeration to the shock of rationalization of industrial structure is slo- wer than optimization of industrial structure. Finally, the robustness test guarantees the relia- bility of conclusions, and found, in Yangtze River Delta, the financial agglomeration affects industrial structure mainly through the capital market.