重庆市工业耗能相关碳排放变化驱动因素研究

Study on Impact Factors of Industrial Energy Consumption Related to Carbon Emissions in Chongqing

在构建重庆市工业耗能相关碳排放影响因素分解模型的基础上，采用因素分解方法分析了过去十余年间（1999～2011）4种驱动因素对重庆市工业碳排放变化的影响，并识别出关键驱动因素。结果显示：能耗增长的主要原因是工业经济发展；工业能源强度是促进重庆市工业耗能相关碳减排的主要影响因素；产业结构因素对重庆市工业耗能相关碳排放变化的影响存在波动，但其累积效果表现为减排；能源结构因素对重庆市工业耗能相关碳排放变化没有显著影响。最后，结合各关键因素的未来发展趋势，提出重庆市工业未来低碳发展的可行途径为技术进步和产业升级。

Based on the construction of impact factors decomposition model of industrial energy consumption related to carbon emissions, the index decomposition method was applied to analyzed the impact of 4 factors on the industrial carbon emission in Chongqing during 1999-2011, and identified the key factors. The results showed that： the increasing of energy consumption was mainly because of industrial enconomic development; energy intensity was appeared as the main contributor of carbon emission reduction; the influence of industrial structure was fluctuated, but the accumulative effect was emission reduction; and energy structure showed no significant effect on the industrial carbon emissions in Chongqing. In the end, combined with the developing trend of impact factors, we recommended that technical progress and industrial upgrading should be the most feasible ways of industrial carbon emission reduction in Chongqing.