插值预报的一种新方法及其在降水预报中的应用

A NEW METHOD OF INTERPOLATION PREDICTION AND ITS APPLICATION OF FORECASTING RAINFALL

本文针对经典插值预报方法存在的不足，遵循插值预报的基本原理，提出了插值预报的一种新方法．此方法的实质是考虑了预报系统中不同预报因子对系统的最后演变结果的不同作用．将此方法应用于云南１８个测站五月雨量的预报中，结果表明，此方法无论在历史预报方面，还是在外推预报方面均具有良好的稳定性和预报精度．

To overcome the shortcoming of the traditional interpolation prediction method, a new method of interpolation prediction is advanced under the principle of interpolation prediction. The essence of the new method is that the different effects of different predictive elements are considered in the whole predictive system. The new method is used in the rainfall prediction experiments of 18 observatories in Yunnan province, The results indicate that the new method has excellent features both in simulation and prediction.