天山地区地震学中短期预报方法研究及效能评价

STUDY ON SEISMOLOGICAL MEDIUM-,SHORT-TERM PREDICTION METHODS IN TIANSHAN AND EVALUATION FOR THEIR PREDIC-TION EFFICIENCY

利用多种地震活动性方法 ,对南北天山地区较大地震前的地震学中短期前兆特征进行了系统分析 ,并从地震活动的空间分布及时序特征两方面 ,提出了 6个研究子区的前兆异常判定指标。在对各种地震学方法的效能进行 R值评分的同时 ,还对它们之间的相关性进行了讨论。

The medium ,short term seismological precursory features before large shocks in South North Tianshan are analyzed systematically by using many kinds of seismicity me thods , and precursory anomaly indexes in 6 research areas are put forward from two aspects of spatial distribution of seismic activity and its time sequence features. The prediction efficiency of every seismological method is evaluated with R value, meanwhile, the correlativity between every two methods are discussed.