地震视应变场的演化与强震发生地区的关系

RELATION BETWEEN THE EVOLUTION OF SEISMIC APPARENT STRAIN FIELD AND THE REGION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE

根据中国的中强地震资料 ,初步研究了地震视应变场的时空演化特征与 1 955年以来31次强震事件发生地区的关系 .结果表明 ,在 1～ 5年左右的时间范围内 ,地震视应变异常区与强震事件发生地区存在相当好的对应关系 .应用地震视应变异常区预测强震发生地区的 R值为 0 .458,预测强震发生地区的经验概率为 0 .62 5,具有比较好的预测效果 .

In this paper, according to the data on the middle and strong earthquakes in China, we have preliminarily studied the relation between the characteristic of space time evolution of the seismic apparent strain field and the regions of 31 macroseism events since 1955. The result shows that, there is a rather well corresponding relationship between the anomaly region of seismic apparent strain and the zone of macroseism event occurrence within the time range of one to about five years. The R value of the application of the abnormal region of seismic apparent strain to predicting the area of strong earthquake occurrence is 0.458, and the empirical possibility of forecasting the region of macroseism occurrence is 0.625, and so the forecasting effect is comparatively well. Finally, the main results obtained above are discussed preliminarily.