经济增长非线性时序预测方法研究

Study on Non Linear Time Series Forecasting Approaches of Economic Growth

分析了经济系统非线性时序预测的国内外研究现状、现代经济增长模型在预测中存在的不足之处 ,阐述了经济增长系统的非线性、动态反馈性、开放性等特征 ,并应用非线性时序理论 ,研究了经济增长的非线性时序预测问题 。

The internal and external state of non linear time series prediction to economic system is reviewed and modern economic growth models and their shortcomings in the prediction are analyzed in the paper.Based on the non linear,dynamic feedback and open characteristics of economic growth system,problems of the non linear time series forecasting of economic growth are discussed and approaches presented.