决策意象、意象转变与美国对华政策——以小布什政府对华政策演变为例

Policy Imagery,Cognitive Change and America's China Policy: The Case of the Evolution of George W.Bush's China Policy

决策意象是决策实体在认知过程中,基于自身的性格、价值观和世界观,通过对信息的接受、编码、储存、控制、对比、使用和输出而形成的。决策实体通常带着认知过程形成的意象进行决策。文章在强调认知意象在国际政治研究中的重要性的基础上,重点分析了影响认知意象转变的因素及其作用机制。文章认为,国际环境变化是影响认知形成的最重要外部条件但并非充分条件,国际危机和中国对美政策能动性是使国际环境变化信息快速激发意象核心内容转交的关键因素。在此基础上,作者归纳出决策意象转变的三种作用机制:决策团队相对一致的集体意象发生分歧、原来的少数派认知重新崛起、决策团队内部的人事变化。文章最后以小布什政府对华政策的转变为例分析了相关影响因素的作用机制。

Policy imagery is shaped by the cognitive processes of decision makers on the basis of their personalities,values and world views as they receive,code,store,retain,control,compare,use and disseminate information.Policymakers generally make decisions based on policy imagery shaped by such cognitive processes.This article analyzes the factors and mechanisms which influence the evolution of cognitive imagery.It argues that changes in the international context are the most important element in shaping cognitive processes,but that they are not sufficient to explain change.International crisis-and the level of agency of China's policy towards the United States are the most critical factors for causing information regarding changes in the international context to rapidly stimulate change in the core contexts of policy imagery.On the basis of this analysis,the author identifies three causal mechanisms of policy imagery evolution.The article concludes by using the case of the change in George W.Bush's China policy to analyze the each of their respective effects.