台日渔业谈判历程及其对钓鱼岛局势的影响

Taiwan-Japan Fishery Talks and its Impacts on the Development of Diaoyu Islands Dispute

文章首先回顾了台日渔业谈判的历程。1996年,台日因钓鱼岛"主权"和渔权冲突开启渔业谈判,至2013年签署渔业协议共举行了17次。期间,双方围绕钓鱼岛"主权"归属、专属经济区重叠以及海上民事等问题展开博弈。但由于日本无意让步及台湾当局"保钓"、"护渔"决心有限,谈判难有进展。2012年9月日本宣布"国有化"钓鱼岛后,两岸特别是中国大陆的强势反应,使中日在钓鱼岛问题上的互动发生了深刻变化。台湾当局借力打力,实现对日谈判突破,台日渔业协议最终签署。文章还分析了该协议的签署对钓鱼岛局势的影响。笔者认为,台日签署渔业协议,各取所需,有利于双方关系发展。但台湾地区残存的保钓民意,将在很大程度上被削弱,台湾当局在钓鱼岛问题上也会进一步被"边缘化"。台日签署渔业协议还迎合了美国关切及"亚太再平衡"战略,并对两岸关系造成有限损害。但钓鱼岛局势不会因台湾当局退出实质维权而受大的影响。

The article begins with a review of the history of fishery negotiations between Taiwan and Japan.By 2013,17 rounds of talks have been held by the two parties.During that period,the two parties competed around such issues like 'sovereignty' over the Diaoyu Islands,overlap between exclusive economic zones and maritime civil affairs.Because Japan refused to compromise,and because Taiwan didn't firmly stand up and protect its interests in the Diaoyu Islands,it was difficult for the talks to make a breakthrough.In September 2012,Japanese purchase of the Diaoyu Islands provoked strong reactions from Taiwan and China's Mainland,especially from China's Mainland,causing a deep change in Sino-Japanese engagement around the Diaoyu Islands.Taiwan leveraged this change to realize a breakthrough in talks with Japan,and a Taiwan-Japan Fishery Agreement was finally signed.This article analyzes the impacts of the signing of this agreement on the development of the Diaoyu Islands dispute.The author argues that both Japan and Taiwan takes what they wanted through signing the agreement,which is beneficial for the development of Taiwan-Japanese relations.However,the remaining passion in Taiwan's society for protecting interests over the Diaoyu Islands will be weakened substantially,and Taiwan may be further marginalized with respect to the Diaoyu Islands dispute.The signing of this agreement between Taiwan and Japan serves the U.S.interests and its 'Rebalancing to Asia' strategy,and does some limited damage to cross-strait ties.While so,Taiwan's reluctance to protect its rights will not have a decisive impact on the development of the Diaoyu Islands dispute.