基于logit模型的城市高学历人群长期居留倾向研究

The Tendency of Long-term Settlement for Population with Graduate and Above Education Base on Logit Model

我国城市政府普遍意识到高学历人群流入对于城市发展的重要意义,制定了一系列吸引人才的公共政策,但是对影响高学历人才长期居留因素认识不足,致使政策制定缺乏依据并且效果欠佳。国内外学者对于影响流动人口长期居留因素的研究较多,而从人口社会学特征视角,以流动人口中的高学历人才为研究对象的尚少。高学历流动人才作为流动人口的组成部分,其人口社会学特征,如文化程度、年龄、随迁家庭情况显著不同于其他群体,为此,在充分梳理相关文献的基础上,从人口社会学特征视角,采用调查问卷和直接访谈方式,使用离散选择模型中的Logit回归方法,对高学历人才长期居留影响因素(包括性别、年龄、学历、配偶户籍地和随迁家庭情况)进行了综合分析,以期加深对高学历人群长期居留影响因素的认识,为政府制定相关政策提供理论依据。

The government has realized the significance of population inflow with graduate and above educa- tion level for urban development in cities and made a series of policies. But it has insufficient understand- ing on the factors impacting long-term settlement of these people, and the policy making is lack of founda- tion and has negative effectiveness. Domestic and foreign scholars have done many studies on factors im- pacting long-term settlement of floating population, but there are few studies on this group from the per- spective of soci-demographic characteristics. Population with graduate and above education level is an im- portant part of floating population, whose soci-demographic characteristics, such as education level, age and families＇ situation are quite different from other parts. We apply Logit Regression in discrete choice model to analyze factors that affect long-term settlement, including gender, age, education background, spouse＇ s place of domicile and families＇ situation, by analyzing concerned literatures substantially and the way of questionnaire and direct interview in order to know factors affecting long-term settlement of these people. The study can be the theoretical basis for the government to make concerned policies.