户籍制度对农村劳动力流动趋势的影响分析——基于改进的托达罗模型

An Analysis of Effects of the System of Household Registry on the Tendency of Rural Labour Mobility in Terms of the Todaro Model

户籍制度对劳动力流动的影响一直是我国学者研究的重点。劳动力流动过程可分为两个过程和一个过渡时期,通过在托达罗模型中引入户籍制度因素,并将预期收入改进为预期效用构建我国户籍制度与劳动力流动规模的计量模型,运用1991—2011年相关数据进行验证,结果表明户籍制度在两个过程中分别发挥着相反的作用。在第一个过程中,户籍制度的作用主要表现为城乡间实际收入的差距推动农村人口流向城市;但是在第二个过程中,由于权益福利的限制及城市二元劳动力市场的存在,户籍制度的作用主要表现为城乡间生活成本的巨大差距阻碍农村劳动力进入城市并成为真正的产业工人。因此,户籍制度改革措施需要区分具体阶段,同时需要土地、财税以及金融体制的联动改革以配合。

The effects of the system of household registry on labour mobility have always been the focal concern of scholars in our country. Theoretically, the process of labour mobility divides into two stages and a transitional period. The present study input the elements of the system of household registry into the Todaro Model to construct a measuring model of our system of household registry and scale of labour mobility by taking the expected im- provement of income as the expected utility, and testified the 1991--2011 related data. The results show that the system of household registry played negative roles in the two stages respectively. At the first stage, the household registry system helped encourage the rural population to migrate to the city due to the difference in practical income between the country and city. At the second stage, however, because of the restriction of right and welfare and the existing binary market of labour, the household registry system helped obstruct rural labour from going to the city and becoming real industrial workers considering the wide gap in life cost between the country and city. Therefore, specific measures should be introduced to the reform of the system of household registry to differentiate actual stages and strive for cooperation from an integrated reform in land, finance, taxation and banking system.