风电场容量可信度及其若干影响因素分析

Analysis on the Capacity Credit of a Wind Farm and its Influencing Factors

风电场的容量可信度是衡量其发电容量价值的基本指标,也是风电场规划选址的一个重要参考依据。为此,首先采用时间序列分析法模拟每小时的风速值,并结合风电机组的强迫停运率等数据,建立风电场的可靠性模型;其次,采用抛物线法计算风电场的有效载荷容量;最后利用序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法,研究风电场的容量可信度。该方法不仅可计及风速的时序性,还能准确评估系统的频率指标。在此基础上,通过IEEE-RTS 79标准算例仿真计算,对比分析采用不同指标衡量系统可靠性时,容量可信度计算结果的差异,并研究影响容量可信度大小的主要因素。

The capacity credit of a wind farm is a basic index to evaluate the value of its power generation capacity, and it is also an important reference for location planning of wind farms. An autoregressive moving average time series model is used to simulate the hourly wind speeds. Based on the data of forced outage rate of a wind turbine generator, the reliability model of the wind farm is buih. The parabola method is used to calculate the effective load-carrying capacity of the wind farm. The sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to study the capacity credit, which not only facilitates the time series ruodeling of wind speeds, but also provides accurate frequency assessments of the system. Finally, the proposed method is tested with the IEEE-RTS 79 testing system, and the difference of capacity credits with different reliability indices and their affecting factors are also analyzed.