“十一五”我国30个省区节水绩效及耗水系数方程的构建

The water-saving performance of 30 provinces in China in the 11th five-year and construction of water consumption equation

基于2006-2010年用水量数据,对“十一五”我国30个省区节水量和节水效率进行分析,结果发现各省区节水效率具有收敛性,平均在35％～50％之间;而单位产值节水量差异较大,且与该期万元产值耗水系数呈正相关性.假设万元产值耗水系数是人均水资源禀赋、第一产业比重和人均GDP的函数,依据2006-2010年30个省区面板数据统计分析,发现人均水资源丰富和第一产业比例大,单位产值用水量越大;而单产用水量与人均GDP呈负指数关系,在此基础上建立了万元产值耗水系数方程.从该方程可看出,水资源越丰富的地区节水潜力越大,而降低第一产业和提高第三产业在GDP中的比重,是提高水资源利用率的有效途径.

Based on water consumption data from 2006 to 2010 in the 11th five-year,the watersaving amount and water-saving profit of 30 provinces in China were analyzed.It is concluded the data of water-saving profit in each provinces was of convergence,fluctuating between 35％ to 50％; While there were great difference among the per unit of water-saving profit,which was positively associated with the water consumption of ten thousand Yuan RMB production value.It is assumed that the water consumption of ten thousand Yuan RMB production value is a function of the water resource per capita,proportion of primary industry and GDP per capita.According to the analysis of the sectional data of 30 provinces from 2006 to 2010,it was found that the more the water resource per capita and proportion of primary industry were,the higher the water consumption of ten thousand Yuan RMB production value got,while water consumption was in a negative exponential relationship with GDP per capita.On the basis of the analysis,the equation of the water consumption of ten thousand Yuan RMB production value was established.According to this equation,the more water resource the area had,the greater water-saving potential the area got.In addition,it is an effective way to improve the water use efficiency by reducing the first industry and increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP.