灰色系统理论在能源预测中的综合建模方法探讨

ON SYNTHETICAL MODELLING METHOD IN THE GREY SYSTEM THEORY FOR ENERGY FORECAST

本文以赣州地区能源系统中的供电量、煤自产量以及煤油、柴油,汽油三油供应总量的时间序列数据为依据,应用灰色系统理论,采用综合建模方法建立了这三项能源指标的GM(1,1)模型,预测了赣州地区1990—2000年这几项指标的需求量和产量。这些模型经检验有较高的精确度,其预测结果经论证有较高的可信度,为有关部门的决策提供了科学依据。

This paper, basing on the time series data for the amount of power supply, the amonnt of coal production and the sum of kerasene supply, diesel oil supply and gasoline supply in the energy system of Ganzhou prefecture, using the synthetical modelling mothod in the grey system theory, establishes GM( 1, 1 ) models for these three energy indices and forecasts the required amount and output of these indices in Ganzhou Prefecture during 1990-2000. These models has relatively high precision by examination Meanwhile, believability of their forecat is proofed to be comparatively high. These models supply a scientific for the department concerned.