核电项目投资风险评价指标体系构建

The Construction of Investment Risk Assessment Index System for Nuclear Power Projects

核电项目往往具有投资大、周期长、技术复杂的特点,并且投资回报具有不可预见性和不确定性,因此对核电项目进行风险评价具有重要意义。分析了政治风险、法律风险、自然环境风险、经济风险、管理风险、安全风险、财务风险等核电项目风险因素的特点。在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,结合核电项目的特点,建立了核电项目的投资风险评价指标体系。设计了涵盖了7个一级指标、19个二级指标的调查问卷。指标的测量均采用李克特5级打分法。利用SPSS 20.0统计分析软件对问卷数据进行分析。根据评价指标对核电项目投资风险影响程度的统计分析结果,剔除了与项目相关性不明显的两个指标。对修正后的指标体系进行因子分析后,共提取7个公因子,最终构建了一个包括政策法律风险、安全风险、经济风险、管理风险、技术风险、财务风险和人员风险7个一级指标和政策法规健全程度、政策法规的稳定性等17个二级指标的核电项目投资风险评价指标体系。

Nuclear power projects are characterized by high investment,long project cycle and complicated technologies involved.In addition,returns on investments in nuclear power projects are unpredictable and un certain.All these characteristics of these projects highlight the significance of risk assessment.This article ana lyzes the characteristics of risk factors involved in a nuclear power project,including political risk ,legal risk, natural environment risk,economic risk,administrative risk,safety risk and financial risk.Based on the research fruits of domestic and foreign researchers as well as the features of nuclear power projects,the authors of this article established an investment risk assessment index system for nuclear power projects and designed a questionnaire containing seven primary indices and nineteen secondary indices.All indices are measured using the 5point Likert scale.The authors of the article analyzed the data from the questionnaires with the SPSS 20.0 statistics analytic software.They took out two indices not highly relevant to nuclear power projects based on the results of statistical analysis of the effect of assessment indices on risks in nuclear power project in vestment.After factor analysis for the amended index system,they extracted seven common factors and devel oped an investment risk assessment index system for nuclear power projects comprising seven primary indices （including policy and legal risk,safety risk,economic risk,administrative risk,technical risk,financial risk,and personnel risk） and seventeen secondary indices （including degree of soundness of policies and regulations and stability of policies and regulations）.