作为预测方法的预测市场及其与德尔菲法比较研究

Comparative Study Between the Prediction Markets with Delphi Method

预测市场是兴起于20世纪90年代新的预测理论和实践,为预测和决策开辟了经济学的视角这一片新的天空。短短的10余年时间,就引起了众多领域学者的注意,并且其实践的范围迅速扩大。德尔菲法是在预测和决策中得到最广泛运用的一种方法,从其出现到现在,也只有40多年的时间。本文认为两种预测方法具有共性,但又各有特点,本文从多个方面对两种方法进行了比较:源起和背景的比较;理论基础与机制的比较;程序和方法的比较;应用范围和效果的比较。基于上述比较,本文认为,理论上而言,预测市场是一种更有效率的预测工具。

Prediction markets appeared in the 1990s as a new prediction theory and practice, now being widely used at the forecasting and decision- making. A short period of more than ten years, it caused the many scholars＇ attention in the different fields. Delphi method is the most widely used method in forecasting and decision- making, from its emergence to the present, only 40 years time. This article pointed out that two approaches had many different characteristics though having some in common, and compared the two methods in several aspects： their origins and background; their theoretical basis and mechanism; their pro- cedures and methods; application scope and their effectiveness. Basing on this comparison, the forecast was a more efficient mar- ket forecasting tools.