国内需求、技术进步和国际贸易对能源消耗的影响

Research on Domestic Demand,Technological Progress,and International Trade Influence on Energy Consumption

随着经济发展,能源稀缺成为阻碍中国可持续发展的重要因素。文章通过对投入产出基本模型的分解,从国内需求、进出口贸易与技术进步等方面,将中国能源消耗的主要影响因素分为8种。通过各因素的作用效果与贡献率,来判断我国能源消耗增长的背后动因。结果表明:导致1997—2007年能源消费增长的最主要因素为国内需求成长、出口成长,中间需求替代与中间需求的成长也起到一定的推动作用;而技术进步与出口结构变化时抑制能源消费增长的最主要因素,最终需求结构变动对能源消耗的影响并不稳定。在此基础上,提出若干政策建议。

With economic developing,energy scarcity has become an important factor to hinder China’s sustainable development. The decomposition of the input- output model,in terms of domestic demand,international trade and technological progress,the main factors affecting China’s energy consumption is divided into eight kinds. Relevant data to calculate the effect of the contribution rate of these factors to determine the motivation behind the growth of China’s energy consumption. The results showed that： the most important factor for the growth of energy consumption from 1997 to 2007 are the growth of domestic demand,export growth,in addition,the growth of intermediate demand substitution and intermediate demand also played a certain role; technological progress and export structure changes,inhibition of energy the most important factor of growth in consumption,and ultimately changes in the demand structure of energy consumption is not stable. According to results,the paper raises a number of policy suggestions.