宏观审慎管理理论与政策

Theory and Policy of Prudent Macro Management

加强宏观审慎管理已成为后危机时代金融监管改革的重要趋势。国内外的学者对宏观审慎管理的概念、目标、工具等问题进行了深入的研究,但总体看来尚没有形成系统的理论。在借鉴动态随机一般均衡模型的基础上,我们构建了宏观审慎管理政策的模型框架,分析了资本要求和贷款价值比率工具对金融市场的影响,同时一定程度上厘清了宏观审慎管理政策与货币政策的差别。研究结果表明,宏观审慎管理政策与货币政策在目标上具有一定意义上的一致性。单一的政策很可能会损害实体经济,在实践中必须进行动态平衡。因此,必须转变监管理念,着手建立宏观审慎管理框架,发挥中央银行在宏观审慎管理中的核心作用,加强宏观审慎管理政策与包括货币政策在内的各项政策的协调与配合。

To strengthen prudent macro management has become an important trend of financial regulatory reform in the post- crisis era. Domestic and foreign scholars study the concept,goals,tools and other issues of prudent macro management in- depth,but all in all it has still no systematic theory. Drawing on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,we construct a model of macro- prudential policy framework,analyze the impact of the financial market instruments from capital requirements and loan to value ratio,and to some extent clarify differences between the prudent macro management and monetary policy. The results show that macro policies and prudent management of monetary policy have the consistent objectives in a certain sense. A single policy is likely to damage the real economy,in practice,they must be dynamic equilibrium. Therefore,we must change regulatory philosophy,initiate the establishment of macro- prudential regulatory framework,play the core role of the central bank in macro- prudential management,strengthen the coordination and cooperation between macro policy and other policies,including monetary policies.