城镇化、对外开放与城乡收入差距关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Urbanization、Opening-Up and Urban-Rural Income Gap

本文以城市化、对外开放与城乡收入差距的作用机制为理论基础,运用基于VAR模型的动态计量分析方法,对我国1978—2011年城镇化、对外开放与城乡收入差距的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:城镇化在短期有利于缩小城乡收入差距,而在长期则会对城乡收入差距的扩大产生微弱的作用,对外开放对城乡收入差距只具有短期的正向作用;控制变量金融发展水平有利于扩大城乡收入差距,财政农业支出有利于缩小城乡收入差距。在此基础上根据我国的发展现状,文章对实证结论进行了解释并提出了政策启示。

Bases the theory mechanism between urbanization,opening- up and the urban- rural income gap,the paper makes an empirical study on the interaction between them from 1978 to 2011 with a dynamic econometric analysis method of VAR model. The research results show that urbanization is beneficial to narrow the urban- rural income gap,but has a weak effect on widening urban- rural income gap; opening- up has only a short- term positive effect on urban- rural income gap. To control variables financial development level is conducive to expanding urban- rural income gap; fiscal expenditure on agriculture is benefit for reducing urban- rural income gap. On this basis,according to the present situation of the development of our country,the paper explains the empirical conclusion and proposes the policy implications.