福建省生产性服务业与制造业的景气互动分析

On Interaction Relationship of the Propensity between Producer Services and Manufacturing in Fujian Province

通过采用线性协整和门槛协整方法对福建省生产性服务业与制造业之间的景气互动关系进行研究,结果发现,福建省生产性服务业与制造业之间确实存在着长期均衡关系,并且两者组成的动态系统具有显著的门槛特征,在不同区制下系统的运行方式存在一定的差异。在两者的互动关系上,更多的是制造业影响生产性服务业,生产性服务业仅在较为极端的情况下会反过来影响制造业。

This paper applies a linear and a threshold cointegration method to study the propensity interaction relation- ship between producer services and manufacturing in Fujian province respectively. The results show there exist long term equilibrium between them, and the dynamic system of them shows a significant threshold feature. Manufacturing industry influence producer services significantly, but producer services will affect manufacturing only in extreme occa- sions.