苏(俄)在叙利亚军事基地部署的动因分析

On the Dynamics of Soviet(Russian) Military Base Deployment in Syria

对于长期遭受西方战略围堵与遏制的苏联和俄罗斯来说,在中东部署军事基地不仅有助于其突破战略封锁、维护其作为一个陆权大国在中东的地缘政治和地缘经济利益,而且具有重要的政治象征意义,是苏(俄)在中东实现政治抱负和奠定大国地位的基石。苏(俄)在叙利亚的军事基地是苏联在中东最重要的军事基地之一,也是冷战后俄罗斯在中东唯一的军事基地。四十年来,苏(俄)在叙利亚的军事基地经历美苏冷战、苏联解体、俄罗斯再度复兴和中东剧变等重大历史事件的考验,具有稳定性;同时受苏(俄)战略文化、中东现实利益、两国特殊关系以及苏(俄)财政状况的共同影响,其军事基地的规模和功能具有变化性,是苏(俄)在中东权力投射、维护海外利益、参与中东事务的依托,也是苏(俄)权力兴衰的"晴雨表"。2011年叙利亚陷入乱局以来,俄叙特殊关系经受了考验,俄罗斯在叙利亚军事基地的前景具有不确定性。

Encircled and contained by external marine powers throughout history, the Soviet Union and thereafter Russia, as a land superpower, strove to establish military bases in the Middle East to break through the strategicencirclement, realize its geo-political and geo-economic interests, lay a solid foundation to achieve its political ambition and seek its great power status in the Middle East. The establishment of Russian military base in Syria is driven by Russia's geopolitical-led strategic culture, its Middle East interests, Moscow-Damascus special relations, and Russian fiscal situation as well. The incentives behind the Russian military bases in Syria can be divided into three periods: seeking ideological struggle during the Cold War, showing its presence in the last one and half decades of the 20th century, and protecting its practical interest in the 21st century. The bases forge an essential platform for Moscow to project military power, to maintain its geopolitical and geo-economic interests and to participate in the Middle East affairs, symbolizing the rise and fall of the Russian Empire. The chaotic and new development of Syrian civil war will inevitably exert far-reaching effects on and pose a formidable challenge to Russian military deployment in the country.