基于Bayes理论的固有可用度定时截尾试验方案

Availability Type-ⅠCensored Test Based Bayes Theory

为解决小子样条件下进行产品固有可用度试验验证的问题,基于Bayes理论,提出了一种固有可用度定时截尾试验方案.该试验方案在假设故障间隔时间和修复时间均服从指数分布的前提下,将现场试验分为同时进行的可靠性和维修性定时截尾试验2个部分,要求在利用验前试验信息的基础上,使本次试验获得的验后分布还可以作为下一次现场试验的验前分布,提高了试验数据的利用率,具有较好的经济效益.

To solve the problem of verifying inherent availability in small sample circumstances, an availability type-I censored test procedure is presented based on Bayes theory. In this procedure, under the assumption that time to failure and time to repair of unit are exponentially distributed, inherent availability test is divided into two parts： simultaneous reliability and maintainability type-I censored tests. Not only prior test information is used, but also posterior distribution can be turned into the prior distribution of the next test, which can increase utilization ratio of test data and achieve better economic benefit.