典型浓度路径(RCP)情景下未来50年鄱阳湖流域气候变化预估

Prediction on the Possible Climate Change of Poyang Lake Basin in the Future 50 Years,under RCP Scenario

基于典型浓度下BCC-CSM1-1全球模式1980～2060年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低温度和降水四要素数据,运用双线性插值法将其降尺度到鄱阳湖流域内79个县市级气象站;利用1980～2005年逐日气象观测资料,对模式空间模拟能力和时间趋势模拟能力进行分析和评估;再开展鄱阳湖流域未来2011～2060年气温和降水预估分析。结果表明:①模式模拟能力较强,不仅空间分布而且时间趋势都模拟得较好;②2011～2060年,不同碳排放情景下均呈现升温趋势。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,升温最快的地区恰好正是流域的高温中心,未来流域高温中心可能进一步加强;③未来流域降水总体趋势不明显,年际间波动较大。RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下平均年降水量相当,RCP8.5情景下年平均年降水量最少,但RCP8.5情景下年代际降水则呈现一个明显的上升趋势,说明在RCP8.5情景下,鄱阳湖流域可能出现一个明显的"热-湿"化倾向。

Based on BCC-CSM1-1 global models developed by National Climate Center,bilinear interpolation method was used to downscale the model data to 79 national weather stations of Poyang Lake basin from 1980 to 2060.Using daily observed data from 79 national stations from 1980 to 2005; ArcGIS Spatial analysis technology was used to analyzed spatial modeling capabilities; the future （2011 ～ 2060） temperature and precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin were pre-estimated on the basis of the assessment of the model simulation.The results show：① BCC-CSM1-1golbal model had strong ability on Poyang Lake Basin stimulation not only on spatial distribution but temporal trends：a.the spatial similarity of average temperature was up to 89％ and the precipitation similarity was also up to 65％,the model could simulate large values and the spatial distribution trend b.model simulation data were accordance with actual situation,especially the simulation of average temperature was very consistent warming trend.As for precipitation,the model could simulate the increasing rainfall trend in 1990s and decreasing rainfall trend in the mid-1980s.② There will be a warming trend from 2011 to 2060 with different carbon emission.The fastest warming region is the high temperature center of the basin under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and the high temperature center can be strengthened in the future.③ the future annual precipitation have not obvious overall trend and inter-annual precipitation fluctuate largely.The precipitation under the RCP2.6 scenario is basically equal to the precipitation under RCP4.5 scenario.The average annual precipitation is the least under the RCP8.5 scenario.There is an obvious warming trend for decadal precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario which shows that there is an obvious ＂hot-wet＂ tendency in Poyang Lake Basin.