青海Ms≥6.0地震未来趋势判断——基于可公度方法的研究

The Tendency Judgment of Future Ms≥6. 0 Earthquake in Qinghai:a Commensurability-based Research

在掌握青海省17次历史地震数据后,从时间对称性方面研究该区域地震发生规律,分析地震发生的可能时间,从而为青海地震灾害的监测提供一定的依据。应用三元、四元、五元可公度方法,对青海近40年来6.0级以上的地震分析得到:未来10年内,青海省Ms≥6.0级地震信号在2015年较强,有发生6级以上地震的可能。

Historic earthquake activity in Qinghai has been analyzed by the time symmetry based on the 17 times historical seismic data of Qinghai, and predicted the time of the future earthquake occurrence and provided the basic reference for earthquake monitoring in Qinghai. Based on the method of ternary, quaternary and quintuple commensurability, the earthquake whose magnitude is more than 6. 0 in nearly 40 years is analysed. The results show that in the next 10 years, 2015, an earthquake with magnitude equal to or more than 6.0 is more likely to happen.