吉林省产业发展与能源消费实证研究

The empirical analysis of industrial development and energy consumption in Jilin Province

在吉林省经济能源发展特征分析基础上,利用协整理论、指数分解法和线性对数函数分析了吉林省2000-2011年能源消费和经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:①能源消费与经济增长存在一种长期因果关系,每增加1亿元GDP就要消费1.758万t标准煤,表明吉林省的经济发展属于能源依赖型;②如果其他因素不变,1979-2011年吉林省累计的5390.05万t标准煤的能源消费量实际增长中,单纯经济总产出变化带来的增加量为6518.135万t标准煤;单纯产业结构变化引起的增加量为1895.739万t标准煤;单纯产业能源强度变化引起的减少量为3023.82万t标准煤;③2000-2011年吉林省能源消费强度相对指数分解结果可以看出,以2000年作为基年,2011年的能源强度为2000年的88%,效率指数和结构指数分别为2000年的72%和121%。④从产业结构变动与能源消费强度的关系来看,总能源消费强度的变动与所有的结构因素都是相关的;煤炭消费强度对工业结构变化最为敏感;石油消费强度的结构因素多于煤炭;电力消费强度的变动与所有的结构因素都是相关的。⑤就结构变动的影响程度来看,农业比重下降有助于综合能源消费强度、煤炭消费强度、电力消费强度的降低。农业比重变化对综合能源消费强度和电力消费强度影响大于第三产业和第二产业比重变化对这两者能源消费强度的影响。对于煤炭消费强度、天然气消费强度的影响作用最强的产业是工业,石油消费强度与批发零售、交通运输和工业结构变化有关。

Based on the analysis of the features of economic development and energy consumption, the relationship between them in Jilin was revealed by employing the cointegration theory, index decomposition method and logarithm linear regression method. The result suggests： （1） the economic development and energy consumption are interdetermined, and there is a positive and long-term relationship. The economic development is highly depending on the energy in Jilin Province. （2） Under the condition of other unchanged factors, the change of industrial energy efficiency contributes to the energy saving, while that of industrial structure increases the energy consumption. （3） The industrial structure change enhances the energy intensity, but the energy utility efficiency change lowers it. From the view of contribution to the energy consumption, the contribution of industrial structure to the energy consumption was more than that of the energy utility efficiency in 2000-2011. （4） In 2000-2011, the comprehensive energy intensity change and hydroelectricity energy intensity change were related to all industrial structures＇ change, and the influencing factors about structure of oil energy intensity change were more than those of coal energy intensity change; from the impact degree, agricultural proportion decrease exerted a positive and greater effect on lowering the energy intensity of comprehensive energy and hydroelectricity, and industrial one did on coal and natural gas.