近31a河西走廊地区深层地温变化及突变分析

Deep ground temperature variation and mutation of the Hexi Corridor Region in recent 31 years

根据河西走廊地区深层地温观测时间最长、资料完整的酒泉、张掖及武威3个地面气象站1980年1月～2011年2月的逐月80、160、320cm地温资料，运用线性拟合、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall方法进行趋势和突变分析。研究表明：近31a来河西走廊地区80、160、320cm深层地温均呈显著的波动上升趋势，其中各深层地温夏季增温速率最大，春季次之，冬季最小，各季各深层地温均发生了暖突变。各深层地温年时间序列中存在3a波动周期，且表现为前期冷，后期暖的演变趋势，线性增温速率显著，80em地温增温速率0．55℃/10a，暖突变出现在1994年；160cm地温增温速率0．59℃/10a，暖突变出现在1995年；320cm地温增温速率0．60℃/10a，暖突变出现在1996年。说明年深层地温随着深度的增加，暖突变出现时间存在滞后现象。气温对深层地温的影响作用明显，深层地温受气温升高的影响也呈升高趋势。但随着深度的增加气温与地温的相关性略有降低，这是由于深层地温的变化存在滞后性所致。

The climate change and its effect are the widespread concern hotspot in today＇s international society. The Hexi Corridor Region of Gansu Province, China is the climate change sensitive area and ecological environment frag ile area. In recent 31 years, the trend of climate warming is clear in Hexi Corridor Region, but the study about the ground temperature of Hexi Corridor Region has not been reported. The paper is aimed at investigating the charac teristics and regularity of temperature change and the response to air temperature in Hexi Corridor Region in the al most 31 years, according to the monthly ground temperature data for 80 cm, 160 cm, 320 cm of Jiuquan, Zhangye and Wuwei whose ground temperature data are the most complete and geothermal observation time are the longest in Hexi Corridor Region from January 1980 to February 2011, at the same time, the paper uses linear fitting, moving average and Mann-Kendall climatic statistical methods to carry on trend and mutation analysis to reveal its response to climate change. Studies show that the ground temperatures for 80 cm, 160 cm and 320 cm were significant fluctua- tion trend in recent 31 years in the Hexi Corridor Region, and warming rate of ground temperature is maximum in summer, the second in spring and the minimum in winter, the increasing rate of ground temperature for 80 cm is 0.91 ~C/10 a, the ground temperature for 160 cm and 320 cm increasing rate of 0.85 ℃/10 a and 0.69 ℃/10 a in summer （three ground temperature linear increasing rates were gone through 0.01 significant test）. The ground tern perature year time series present 3 a cycles, and appear the early cold and late warm evolution trend, linear warming rate significantly. The increasing rate of 80 cm ground temperature is 0.55 ℃/10 a, warm mutations appeared in 1994; 160 cm ground temperature increasing rate is 0.59 ~C/IO a, warm mutations appeared in 1995; 320 cm ground temperature increasing rate is 0.60 ℃/10 a, warm mutations appeared in The results show with the in crease of depth, warm abrupt emergence time of the year deep ground temperature has lag phenomenon. The effect of air temperature on deep ground temperature is obvious, the deep ground temperature is increasing with the air tem- perature rising, the positive correlation coefficient is 0.862 of the annual average air temperature and annual average ground temperature of 80 cm （through 0.01 significant test）. The annual average temperatures with annual average ground temperatures of 160 cm and 320 cm also have the same change tendency, correlation coefficients are 0.821 and 0.789 （through 0.01 significant test）. With the depth increase, the correlation of air temperature and ground temperature decreases slightly, which is due to the deep ground temperature change lags.