基于专利引文数据的混合动力汽车创新扩散研究被引量：2

Study on Innovation Diffusion of Hybrid Electric Vehicle Based on Patent Citation Data

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摘要以巴斯扩散模型为理论基础，利用1995～2011年的专利引文数据，对混合动力汽车的技术扩散模型进行了非线性最小二乘法估计。结果显示：①各参数均为统计上显著的，且可决系数与调整可决系数均较大；②该技术的扩散路径符合巴斯模型，且处于成熟阶段。同时，以普锐斯为例，对其1997～2010年的销售数据进行拟合与预测，结果显示，该产品的扩散过程符合巴斯模型。文章认为新技术的扩散与新产品之间存在时滞。 Based on the Bass diffusion model, the parameters are estimated by nonlinear least squares in the technology diffusion model of Hybrid Power Automobile, through patent citation data from 1995 to 201 1. The investigation indicates that all parameters are statistically signifi- cant ,with R -square＆adjusted R-square value satisfying. In addition,with the annual sales data of prius,its sales in the next years are forecasted only to find the diffusion of prius fits the Bass model very well.

作者高幸柴华奇汤松

机构地区西北工业大学管理学院

出处《世界科技研究与发展》 CSCD 2013年第6期784-787,共4页 World Sci-Tech R&D

关键词混合动力汽车巴斯模型专利引文 hybrid power automobile bass model patent citation

分类号 G306.0 [文化科学]

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参考文献15

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