中国南亚热带1901—2011年气温变化的阶段性和周期性及趋势

STAGES,CYCLICITY AND TRENDS OF AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE SUBTROPICAL ZONE OF SOUTH CHINA DURING 1901—2011

全球变暖及其归因问题一直处于争议中，而区域气候更因融入本地因子使得气候变化问题更为复杂。因此，了解区域气候变化过程对区域气候预测以及认识全球气候变化过程具有重要意义。我国南亚热带8个气象站资料分析显示：（1）1901—2011年的气温呈增加趋势，平均气温的线性增温率为1．26℃／100a，与全球变化趋势总体相似；其中，受热岛效应影响的气象站，其气温升高趋势明显高于全球及全国平均水平；而热岛效应影响小的恒春、澎湖和澳门气象站的平均线性增温率则为0．97℃／100a。（2）近110年中存在两个明显的增温阶段，即20世纪10年代中期到50年代中期和20世纪80年代中期至今，具有几十年的年代际变化周期；同时小波分析也显示这种年代际震荡信号上还叠加有3～6年的ENSO年际变化周期。（3）趋势分析显示1998年以来的暖期将持续至21世纪20年代中期，而21世纪我国南亚热带最大增温幅度将出现于60年代中期，2100年我国南亚热带气温较1961—1990年平均值将高约（1.2±0．5）℃。

Understanding the regional air temperature changing process will significantly improve the knowledge of global temperature pattern and its future trend. In this paper, we analyzed the air tempera- ture variations over the period of 1901--2011 in the South China subtropical zone based on the instrumental data from eight weather stations, and reached the conclusions as follows. （1） The annual temperature had experienced an overall rising tendency at an average rate of 1.26 ℃/100 a during the period 1901--2011, which was equivalent to the global mean rate. （2） Due to the urban heat island effect, some stations in the study area showed significantly higher warming rates than the global value and the mean values within Chi- na, while other stations such as Hengchun, Penghu and Macao had little effect of urbanization and showed a warming rate of 0.97 ℃/100 a. （3） Two significant warming periods, i. e. , the period from the mid- 1910s to the mid-1950s and the period since the mid-1980s, were identified in the last 110 years, sugges- ting multidecadal climatic variations. （4） Wavelet analysis further indicated that some interannual oscilla- tions such as 3-6 years ENSO cycles were superimposed on the decadal-scale variations. （5） Trend analy- sis suggests that the current warming period since 1998 will continue until the mid-202Os, and the tempera- ture in 2100 will be （1.2~0.5） ℃ above the mean value of the period of 1961-1990.