基于AHP-熵权和改进DS理论的项目导向型企业项目投资决策研究

Study on Project Investment Decision of Project Oriented Company Based on AHP-Entropy Weight Method and Improved Evidence Theory

项目导向型企业通过一系列前后相接的项目实施来实现企业的利润,在项目正式实施前,企业必须对项目进行投资评估决策,在评估过程中存在大量的信息不确定性,表现为信息不准确性、不完备性、不完全可靠性以及冲突性。文章首先建立了项目导向型企业项目投资决策评估指标体系;然后结合层次分析法、熵权法确定了指标体系综合性权重,利用DS理论对项目进行投资决策评估,从而削弱了投资评估过程中存在的信息不准确性、不完备性、不完全可靠性;最后通过案例分析保证了模型的可操作性,以期对项目导向型企业进行项目投资决策提供一种定量化的方法与视角。

The project oriented company achieves its profit by implementing a series of projects connected before and after. Before the implementation of the project, the enterprise must evaluate the project investment and then decide whether invest it, in the evaluation process there will be a lot of information uncertainty, characterized by the informa^on inaccuracy, incompleteness, incomplete reliability, and conflicting. This article establishes a project investment evaluation index system of project oriented company, determines the compre- hensive index weight combining with anal）tic hierarchy process and entropy weight method, evaluates the project investment with evidence theory, weakening the information inaccuracy, incompleteness, incomplete reliability, and conflicting existed in the evaluation process. At the end, the case analysis ensures the maneuverability of the model, which is expected to provide a quantiative method and perspective for project oriented company to decide project investment.