国际原油价格波动对我国物价的传导效应分析

Analysis on the Transmission Effects of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on China's Domestic Price Level

原油价格波动与一国的物价水平高低有着密切关系。通过考察国际原油价格波动对我国物价水平的传导路径,利用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型对不同传导路径的影响程度进行了实证分析,结果表明:国际原油价格波动可以通过国内成品油价格变动传导至居民消费价格指数(CPI);在不同传导路径中,国际原油价格波动对CPI产生的影响程度在统计意义上存在显著差异,而基于油气产品的传导机制更有效。

Crude oil price fluctuations have a close relationship with a country＇s price level. This paper investigates the transmission paths through which international crude oil price fluctuations can affect China＇s price level, and establishes SVAR models to analyze the effects of different paths. The main results suggest that international crude oil price fluctuations can be transmitted to the consumer price index through domestic refined oil price changes; the impacts of international crude oil price fluctuations on the consumer price index have significant differences statistically through various transmission paths with the path of oil and gas products being more effective.