针对并联配送模型中需求放大效应的研究

Research for bullwhip effect in the parallel distribution model

需求信息在供应链中传递时会发生扭曲,并随着供应链向上逐级放大,造成牛鞭效应.建立由单个制造商和多个零售商组成的并联啤酒配送模型,通过仿真的方法,得到供应链各级在不同的库存水平下牛鞭效应大小和成本高低的数据,分析数据发现制造商和零售商的库存在减小牛鞭效应和降低成本上的作用不相同,并阐述造成这种差异的原因.提出连续订货策略,在每一周期都进行不小于最小补货量的补货.仿真实验的数据证明:这种订货策略可以降低牛鞭效应,削减供应链整体的成本.

Demand information may be distorted in a supply chain and the variance of demand may be larger as the information＇s being transferred from downstream to upstream. This widespread phenomenon is called as the bullwhip effect. This paper presents a parallel beer distribution model with one manufacturer and multiple retailers. The datum of the amplitude of the bullwhip effect and the cost under different levels of inventory is obtained by simulation. By analyzing these datum, the inventories of manufactories and retails play different a role in reducing bullwhip effect and cost, and the reason is also illustrated. Besides, the strategy of continual ordering is put forward, and with replenishment every period of time, the method is proved to be an effective measure to mitigate the bullwhip effect and reduce the overall cost of the parallel distribution based on supply chain model. Furthermore, the validation of this approach is verified by the simulation results.