基于模糊故障树的变压器可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Power Transformer Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

针对电力变压器故障特点,采用模糊理论与故障树分析相结合的方法对变压器可靠性进行分析.介绍了变压器故障树的建树方法与故障树分析流程,建立变压器故障树,找出故障树顶事件的最小割集;利用模糊理论合理客观地得到变压器的故障概率区间;对底事件模糊概率重要度进行计算,得到顶事件的薄弱环节以及关键事件,为变压器可靠性设计和可靠性增长提供理论依据.

In view of the characteristics of the fault of the power transformer, the reliability of power transformer is analyzed by combining fuzzy theory with fault tree analysis. The establishment of the transformer fault tree and its analysis process are introduced, and then a transformer fault tree is established to find out the minimal cut set in the top event of fault tree. The reasonable objectively failure probability interval of a transformer is obtained by using the fuzzy theory. The fuzzy probabil- ity importance data of element events are calculated, and the weak links of top events and key events are obtained, providing a theoretical basis of reliability design and growth for power transformer.