中国出口增长的决定因素分析

An Analysis on the Determinants of China's Exports Growth

本文首次根据理性微观经济主体的效用函数最大化原理建立出口增长模型 ,并运用误差修正程序 (而不是前人所使用的简单存量调整机制 )进行实证分析 ,结果表明中国出口品在国际市场定价过低已严重地制约了中国出口的持续增长 ,贸易汇率与出口之间存在着协整关系 ,外部冲击对中国出口增长有显著影响。

This paper develops an export growth model to analyze the determinants of exports growth in China. The model is derived from the maximization of objective functions by rational agents, a less stringent and more general process is used based on an error correction procedure.In this paper we establish the properties of the time series prior to testing for cointegration. We then use the framework of error correction modeling in the analysis to determine the factors influencing export growth in China.