公路货运量长期预测的类别分析模型

Category Analysis Model of the Road Tonnage Long term Forecasting

本文探讨了预测方法对运输量长期预测质量的影响及质量控制问题 ;将类别分析模型应用于公路运输量长期预测 ,对于确定增长类型 (转折点 )预测、提高长期预测质量具有较好的效果。并结合广西河池地区的实际情况将类别分析模型作了运用。

This paper analyzes the main factors, which affect the quality of Long term forecasting of the highway fright volume,and study the method of improve the quality of the forecasting. Then category analysis is used in the Hechi Highway Transport Siation Planing,and has got a satisfactory practical effect.