当代西方经济变量与民主化关系研究历史述评

On Contemporary Studies of the Relationship Between Economic Factors and Democratization in Historical Perspective

从经济变量角度研究民主化动力问题是民主化研究中的重要论题之一。在近半个多世纪的研究中,这一论题经历了从兴起、式微到复兴的过程,也经历了由浅入深的研究过程,即从单纯的经济发展变量角度到从多元的经济变量角度进行的研究,从旨在确立变量间关系到尝试探索因果机制的研究,从单因素模型分析到多因素模型下的因果关系分析的过程。这一论题研究既存在很多尚未解决的问题,也随着政治发展学和相关学科的发展面临着新的机遇。

The study of the relationship between economic variables and democratization is the basis for comprehensive a- nalysis of the dynamic of democratization. During the process of more than half centuries development, this subject experienced the process of rise, decline and revival, as well as the deepening process from development-variable-centered research to muti- ple-ecomomic-variable-centerd research, from originally aiming to establish correlation between variables to trying to explore the causal mechanism of this correlation, from single-factor-model analysis to multi-factor-model analysis. There are still many un- resolved problems in this subject. However, along with progress in the theory of political development and related disciplines, this subject is facing new opportunities.